Lately, Wall Street economic commentary has been replete with ominous warnings. President Donald Trump’s tariffs are bound to cause an economic downturn, or perhaps even a recession.

If the US president moderates his tariff war against China, or if value networks find ways of “ China-washing ” exports to the US via third countries, the same can happen in reverse. Only if Trump is determined to keep ratcheting up protection to stop imports will trade and the economy fail to recover.

The hope is that a U.K. deal will provide a template for further arrangements that can bring overall tariffs down to minimal levels.